The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has commenced work preparing its biennial Integrated System Plan (ISP). This plan outlines pathways for Australia’s electricity grid to remain secure and reliable as it transitions from retiring coal-fired power stations towards dispersed and variable wind and solar generation.

In last year’s plan, five transition scenarios were modelled, ranging from “Slow Change”, where technology cost reductions slow down and consumer motivation reduces, to “Step Change”, where technology and consumer demand continues to accelerate the transition. By the time the report was released in July last year, some experts were suggesting that Australia was already in the “Step Change” scenario.

AEMO has released its draft assumptions for the 2022 plan, revealing modifications to the scenarios that will be modelled. “Sustainable Growth” is similar to 2020’s “Step Change”, but reflects higher regional growth resulting from an ongoing trend of working from home. “Export Superpower” is a new scenario model that represents very high levels of electrification and hydrogen production. Tasmania’s commitment to reaching 200% renewable electricity by 2040 will now be adopted into the modeling of all scenarios, rather than be treated as a sensitivity.

AEMO undertakes numerous consultations in preparing its plans. You can find their engagement schedule, and register to be involved here